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Who Fears Job Losses from U.S. Tariff Hikes? Evidence from Cambodia

Author

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  • TANAKA,Kiyoyasu
  • UEKI,Yasushi

Abstract

In April 2025, the U.S. introduced sharply higher tariff rates under a new “reciprocal tariff” system, raising serious concerns about potential employment impacts on export-oriented industries in developing countries. This paper examines Cambodian public perceptions of the tariff hikes using a phone-based survey of 600 households conducted between September and October 2025. We find that 58.5% of respondents disagreed that the tariff increases negatively affect their jobs, indicating limited perceived employment risk, while 25.9% expressed agreement. Regression analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across income groups: low-income respondents employed in export industries are significantly more likely to perceive negative job impacts, whereas middle- and higher-income respondents show no meaningful direct-exposure effects. Indirect exposure reduces perceived risks among higher-income groups, reflecting their greater job stability and financial resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • TANAKA,Kiyoyasu & UEKI,Yasushi, 2026. "Who Fears Job Losses from U.S. Tariff Hikes? Evidence from Cambodia," IDE Discussion Papers 985, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper985
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2001721/files/IDP000985_001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Jeong, Dahyeon & Aggarwal, Shilpa & Robinson, Jonathan & Kumar, Naresh & Spearot, Alan & Park, David Sungho, 2023. "Exhaustive or exhausting? Evidence on respondent fatigue in long surveys," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Dias da Silva, António & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2025. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations—New evidence for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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