Growing Household Inequality amid Political Turmoil: Evidence from Myanmar

This paper examines household welfare and inequality in Myanmar following political and economic disruptions between 2020 and 2024. To quantify first-order welfare effects through income and cost-of-living channels during the period, we conducted a new household survey to collect detailed information on income, expenditures, and prices. The results show that urban households experienced a 23% decline in nominal income and a 105% increase in living costs, resulting in an average welfare loss of 128%. Households in the bottom quintile faced a 30% decline in income and a 113% rise in living costs, leading to a 143% welfare loss. In contrast, those in the top experienced an 11% income decline and a 96% increase in costs, with a corresponding welfare loss of 107%. A follow-up survey shows that lower-income households make more drastic adjustments in response to deteriorating livelihoods, underscoring a pronounced negative impact of economic disruptions on the poor.