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Trade and Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific

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  • Kumakura, Masanaga

Abstract

Recent empirical studies challenge the traditional theory of optimum currency areas by arguing that a monetary union enhances trade and business cycle co-movements among its member countries sufficiently as to obviate the need for national monetary policy. This paper examines the empirical relationship between trade and business cycle correlations among thirteen Asia-Pacific countries, paying particular attention to the structural characteristics of their economies and other issues not explored fully in the literature. According to our result, although trade is relevant to the business cycles of individual countries, the main determinant of their international correlations is not the geographical structure of their trade but what they produce and export --more specifically the extent to which their output and exports are concentrated on electronic products.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumakura, Masanaga, 2005. "Trade and Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific," IDE Discussion Papers 44, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper44
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=38122&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takashi Kurosaki & Ikuko Okamoto & Kyosuke Kurita & Koichi Fujita, 2004. "Rich Periphery, Poor Center: Myanmar's Rural Economy under Partial Transition to a Market Economy," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d03-23, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen & Ivana Bátorová, 2013. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 392-411, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Optimum currency area; Trade; Electronics; Trade problem; Monetary policy; Asia; Oceania; 景気; 貿易; エレクトロニクス; 貿易問題; 金融政策; アジア; オセアニア;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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