Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces
Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Publication status:||Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 202. 2009.5|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545|
Web page: http://www.ide.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Publication Office, IDE 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 JAPAN|
Web: http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Order Email:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Kobayashi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.