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- La Viabilidad Financiera Del Sistema De Pensiones De Reparto: Aplicación A La Contingencia De Jubilación Del Régimen General De La Seguridad Social Española

Listed author(s):
  • Ana Lejárraga

    (Universitat de València)

  • Carlos Vidal

    (Universitat de València)

  • José E. Devesa- Carpio

    (Universitat de València)

The main idea upon which this paper is based is that outlined by Samuelson (1958) -that a pensions system, financed by way of transfers between generations, will only be viable in the long term if the internal rate of return of the system does not exceed the growth rate of salaries plus the stable growth rate of the contributors- .Thisis linked to the debate that has been reopened and carried on with renewed force over the last few years as to the viability and suitablility of Social Security (SS) systems, a phenomenon which is analysed briefly in the introduction. This is followed by a short review of the main literature available on the subject of applying theinternal rate of return to pay-as-you-go systems. After defining the concept of the internal rate of return as applied to a contributor, this is extended to the system as a whole, using the model put forward by Bravo (1996) as a referent. Thus two approximate expressions are obtained, basic and derived, which provide us with a complete idea of the demographic, financial and economic elements and the rules of application that have an influence on this rate of return. Finally, given that the resulting model enables the internal rate of return to be calculated very easily by defining the basic parameters estimated or observed in the system, this is applied to determine the future financial viability of the general Spanish retirement pensions system, using the two basic expressions developed. La proposición de Samuelson (1958) -un sistema de pensiones, financiado a través detransferencias intergeneracionales, sólo será viable en el largo plazo si el TIR del sistema nosupera la tasa de crecimiento de los salarios más la tasa de crecimiento estable de la poblacióncotizante- es la idea principal sobre la que se edifica el trabajo realizado. Enlaza con el debatereabierto, con impulso renovado en los últimos años, sobre la viabilidad y adecuación de lossistemas de Seguridad Social (S.S.); fenómeno que es analizado concisamente en laintroducción. A continuación, se efectúa una breve revisión de la principal literatura disponiblerelacionada con la aplicación del tanto interno de rendimiento (TIR) a los sistemas de reparto.Tras definir el concepto del TIR aplicado a un cotizante, se realiza una extensión del mismo alconjunto del sistema, con el modelo de Bravo (1996) como referente, obteniéndose dosexpresiones aproximadas, básica y derivada, que nos proporciona una visión muy rica de loselementos demográficos, financieros, económicos y reglas de aplicación que influyen en dichotanto. Por último, dado que el modelo resultante permite calcular el TIR con suma facilidad, apartir de la definición de los parámetros básicos estimados u observados en el sistema, se aplicapara determinar la viabilidad financiera futura del sistema de pensiones de jubilación español,régimen general, utilizando las dos expresiones fundamentales desarrolladas.

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File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 1999
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Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 1999-16.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:1999-16
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