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Structural Change in Cigarette Demand: Cusum Tests Using Panel Data


  • Schroeter, John R.
  • Fenn, Aju J.


We conduct cusum tests of structural change in a rational addiction model of cigarette demand estimated using a panel of annual time series of state-level data. In contrast to the one previous application of cusum tests to the question of cigarette demand stability, our results provide strong evidence of downward shifts in demand during the modern era of health warnings and anti-smoking campaigns.

Suggested Citation

  • Schroeter, John R. & Fenn, Aju J., 2005. "Structural Change in Cigarette Demand: Cusum Tests Using Panel Data," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12425, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12425

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gallet, Craig & Agarwal, Rajshree, 1999. "The Gradual Response of Cigarette Demand to Health Information," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 259-265, July.
    2. Sloan, Frank A. & Smith, V. Kerry & Taylor, Donald Jr., 2002. "Information, addiction, and 'bad choices': lessons from a century of cigarettes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 147-155, October.
    3. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    4. Fenn, Aju J. & Antonovitz, Frances & Schroeter, John R., 2001. "Cigarettes and addiction information: new evidence in support of the rational addiction model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 39-45, July.
    5. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May.
    6. Hamilton, James L, 1972. "The Demand for Cigarettes: Advertising, the Health Scare, and the Cigarette Advertising Ban," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(4), pages 401-411, November.
    7. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    8. Maskus, Keith E, 1983. "Evidence on Shifts in the Determinants of the Structure of U.S. Manufacturing Foreign Trade, 1958-76," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 415-422, August.
    9. Han, Aaron K & Park, Daekeun, 1989. "Testing for Structural Change in Panel Data: Application to a Study of U.S. Foreign Trade in Manufacturing Goods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 135-142, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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