IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genres/12002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cigarettes and Addiction Information: Simulating the Demand Effects of the Tobacco Industry's 'Conspiracy of Silence'

Author

Listed:
  • Fenn, Aju J.
  • Schroeter, John R.

Abstract

Although cigarette manufacturers were aware of the addictive properties of nicotine as early as 1962, the information did not become available to the U.S. public until 1979 when the Surgeon General disclosed it. This study simulates the impact that this information would have had on the demand for cigarettes had it been released in 1962. The simulations build on past work by Fenn, Antonovitz, and Schroeter (FAS) that found evidence that the release of addiction information resulted in a structural shift in demand in 1979. In the present paper, the econometric results from FAS are used to compute simulated time paths for state-level per capita consumtpion under the hypothetical scenario involving the earlier release of the addiction information. Using these simulated consumption paths, the projected reductions in cigarette sales revenue are calculated. These dollar figures provide a benchmark against which to judge the compensation amounts that the industry must pay as a result of recent tobacco lawsuit settlements.

Suggested Citation

  • Fenn, Aju J. & Schroeter, John R., 2004. "Cigarettes and Addiction Information: Simulating the Demand Effects of the Tobacco Industry's 'Conspiracy of Silence'," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12002, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blaine, Thomas W. & Reed, Michael R., 1994. "U.S. Cigarette Smoking and Health Warnings: New Evidence From Post World War II Data," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 535-544, December.
    2. Gallet, Craig & Agarwal, Rajshree, 1999. "The Gradual Response of Cigarette Demand to Health Information," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 259-265, July.
    3. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.
    4. Fenn, Aju J. & Antonovitz, Frances & Schroeter, John R., 2001. "Cigarettes and addiction information: new evidence in support of the rational addiction model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 39-45, July.
    5. Baltagi, Badi H & Griffin, James M, 2001. "The Econometrics of Rational Addiction: The Case of Cigarettes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 449-454, October.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Grossman, Michael & Murphy, Kevin M, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 396-418, June.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H & Levin, Dan, 1986. "Estimating Dynamic Demand for Cigarettes Using Panel Data: The Effects of Bootlegging, Taxation and Advertising Reconsidered," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 148-155, February.
    8. Witt, Stephen F & Pass, Christopher L, 1981. "The Effects of Health Warnings and Advertising on the Demand for Cigarettes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 86-91, February.
    9. Barnett, Paul G. & Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei, 1995. "Oligopoly structure and the incidence of cigarette excise taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 457-470, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moro, Daniele, 2008. "Market And Policy Issues In Micro-Econometric Demand Modeling," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6500, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Anti‐Smoking Legislation: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 325-355, July.
    2. D. Dragone & D. Raggi, 2018. "Testing Rational Addiction: When Lifetime is Uncertain, One Lag is Enough," Working Papers wp1119, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Robert Kaestner & Kevin Callison, 2018. "An Assessment of the Forward‐Looking Hypothesis of the Demand for Cigarettes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 48-70, July.
    4. Fenn, Aju J. & Antonovitz, Frances, 1998. "The Impact Of Addiction Information On Cigarette Consumption," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20857, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Pierpaolo Pierani & Silvia Tiezzi, 2009. "Addiction and interaction between alcohol and tobacco consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Silvia Tiezzi, 2005. "An empirical analysis of tobacco addiction in Italy," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 6(3), pages 233-243, September.
    7. Thomas Demuynck & Ewout Verriest, 2013. "I’Ll Never Forget My First Cigarette: A Revealed Preference Analysis Of The “Habits As Durables” Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 717-738, May.
    8. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ian Irvine, 2005. "A ‘long march’ perspective on tobacco use in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 366-393, May.
    9. Badi H. Baltagi & Ingo Geishecker, 2006. "Rational alcohol addiction: evidence from the Russian longitudinal monitoring survey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 893-914, September.
    10. Andrew M. Jones & Audrey Laporte & Nigel Rice & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2019. "Dynamic panel data estimation of an integrated Grossman and Becker–Murphy model of health and addiction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 703-733, February.
    11. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Giamboni, Luigi & Waldmann, Robert, 2007. "Cigarette smoking, pregnancy, forward looking behavior and dynamic inconsistency," MPRA Paper 8878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. K. Rebecca Scott, 2012. "Rational Habits and Uncertain Prices: Simulating Gasoline Consumption Behavior," Economics Series Working Papers 596, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0064 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Filippini, Massimo & Hirl, Bettina & Masiero, Giuliano, 2018. "Habits and rational behaviour in residential electricity demand," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 137-152.
    15. Silvia TIEZZI, 2010. "Addiction and Smoking Behaviour in Italy," EcoMod2004 330600141, EcoMod.
    16. Laporte, Audrey & Dass, Adrian Rohit & Ferguson, Brian S., 2017. "Is the Rational Addiction model inherently impossible to estimate?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 161-175.
    17. Dragone, Davide & Raggi, Davide, 2021. "Resolving the milk addiction paradox," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Capella, Michael L. & Webster, Cynthia & Kinard, Brian R., 2011. "A review of the effect of cigarette advertising," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 269-279.
    19. John Schroeter & Aju Fenn, 2005. "Structural change in cigarette demand: cusum tests using panel data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11.
    20. Silvia Tiezzi, 2003. "Addiction and Smoking Behaviour in Italy," Department of Economics University of Siena 412, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    21. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:9:y:2005:i:8:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Hidayat, Budi & Thabrany, Hasbullah, 2010. "Cigarette smoking in Indonesia: examination of a myopic model of addictive behaviour," MPRA Paper 30194, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2010.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.