IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/remwps/wp03472024.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy Spillovers in the Euro Area - a new assessment

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • Daniel Loureiro

Abstract

We compute a GVAR to estimate the fiscal spillovers on output, consumption, investment, employment, and income, from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4, with 16 Euro Area (EA) countries. We found that a budget balance expansionary shock in Germany would generate positive spillovers on output and employment. Negative cross-country effects on consumption were also found. No significant spillovers on investment or income were observed following this shock. Greater and more significant spillovers were found after an EA global shock. There are also positive effects on private investment. However, a global shock still does not generate significant effects on income and increases the magnitude of the negative short-run spillovers on consumption. Greece is one of the countries more affected by short-run negative spillovers. Finally, national and global fiscal shocks put upward pressure on prices and generate negative effects on public debt. From a policy perspective, we recommend the reinforcement of the fiscal coordination framework.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Daniel Loureiro, 2024. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers in the Euro Area - a new assessment," Working Papers REM 2024/0347, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03472024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0347_2024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; fiscal spillovers; policy coordination; GVAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03472024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandra Araújo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.