Selection dynamics in the manufacturing industry during the crisis years: some evidences based on microdata

The economic crisis of the late 2000s has led many manufacturing companies to exit the market, due to poor performance or financial difficulties. The purpose of this study is to analyze which characteristics, both static and dynamic, play a role in the shaping of the firms’ exit decision. For this goal, we apply survival analysis techniques to an Italian regional case study, Tuscany, accounting for features of the firms observed both before and during the early years of the crisis. Our findings evidence that the selection process hits companies belonging to supplier-dominated sectors and industrial districts and, more in general, firms that before the crisis were already characterized by a low level of productivity or a poor overall efficiency. Results also suggest that lack of liquidity and inability to cover interest expenses are likely to bring to the exit during the crisis.