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Informalidade e Desempenho Econômico: Uma Análise dos Impactos Micro e Macroeconômicos de Políticas Para a Formalização

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  • Gabriel Ulyssea

Abstract

Este texto desenvolve um arcabouço que permite analisar os impactos micro e macroeconômicos de diferentes políticas para formalização. O modelo é estimado e utilizado para avaliar os efeitos das duas principais abordagens para reduzir a informalidade: i) diminuir os custos da formalidade; e ii) elevar os custos da informalidade. Os resultados mostram que há importantes tradeoffs entre os impactos micro e macro destas abordagens. Políticas que visam aumentar os custos da informalidade têm efeitos piores sobre as firmas que políticas que reduzem os custos da formalização. O oposto é verdade para os indicadores macroeconômicos. Quando considerados os efeitos líquidos sobre o bem-estar agregado, políticas que aumentam o custo da informalidade têm melhor desempenho. Não obstante, reduções no grau de informalidade não estão necessariamente associadas a mais bem-estar. This paper develops a framework for performing ex ante evaluations of the micro (at the firm level) and macro impacts of formalization policies. I estimate the model and use it analyze the two main policy approaches towards informality: increasing the costs of informality (the stick), and reducing the costs of formality (the carrot). The results show that there exist important tradeoffs between their micro and macro effects: while stick policies have uniformly worse effects on firms, their effects on aggregate outcomes are better than carrot policies. In net terms, however, stick policies have better welfare effects. Under either approach, informality reductions are not necessarily associated to welfare gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Ulyssea, 2013. "Informalidade e Desempenho Econômico: Uma Análise dos Impactos Micro e Macroeconômicos de Políticas Para a Formalização," Discussion Papers 1900, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1900
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