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Análise da Dinâmica Orçamentária dos Municípios Brasileiros: Uma Aplicação da Metodologia VAR Com Dados Empilhados

Listed author(s):
  • Bernardo Patta Schettini
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    O trabalho estima um VAR-painel usando dados de despesas totais, receitas tributárias e transferências correntes de 5.544 municípios brasileiros observados de 2002 a 2010. Uma sequência de hipóteses foi investigada por meio das estatísticas do teste de sobreidentificação. Entre os resultados encontrados, destacamos existirem evidências de mudança no comportamento fiscal dos municípios, mas que em média se mostrou compatível com a hipótese tax and spend e com o efeito flypaper das transferências sobre os gastos. Existe, aparentemente, muito mais dinâmica nas despesas do que na arrecadação própria. Tais resultados lançam luz sobre aspectos importantes da dinâmica orçamentária municipal. The paper estimates a panel-VAR using data on total expenditures, tax receipts and overall grants received for 5.544 Brazilian municipalities observed from 2002 through 2010. A sequence of hypotheses was investigated by the means of overidentification test statistics. Among our main findings, we underscore there exists evidence of change in the fiscal behavior of the municipalities, but which in average support the tax and spend hypothesis, as well as the flypaper effect of grants over expenditures. We also find there is a lot more dynamics in the expenditure compared to own revenues. We believe these results shed light on some important aspects of the municipal budget dynamics.

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    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1685.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2012
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1685
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