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Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains

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  • Mr. Lev Ratnovski

Abstract

The paper examines opportunities for deeper economic integration between the EU and the Western Balkans and assesses their potential economic impact. It documents key non-tariff barriers to Western Balkan–EU industrial goods trade—covering regulatory, customs, and border-logistics frictions—amounting to around 8–14 percent ad valorem equivalent. Reducing these barriers, alongside deeper agri-food and services integration, could generate substantial gains, allowing the Western Balkans to capture roughly one-quarter to one-half of the economic benefits of full EU membership while supporting EU objectives related to nearshoring, supply-chain resilience, regional integration, and connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2026. "Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains," IMF Working Papers 2026/196, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/196
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