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Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
  • Oliver Exton
  • Chang Gao
  • Mario Saraiva
  • Ms. Parisa Kamali
  • Alessandra Sozzi
  • Jasper Verschuur

Abstract

This paper develops high frequency trade estimates at the country level by applying nowcasting methodologies to satellite-based big data on vessel movements sourced from IMF PortWatch. The approach provides a timely estimate of monthly trade at the country level that can be produced and released within 7 working days. The paper validates the nowcasting trade estimates against official data for an initial wave of countries representing advanced economies, emerging markets and small island developing states: Brazil, Jamaica, Japan, Samoa, and the United States. The nowcasting methodology produces trade estimates that perform well compared to the official statistics, with the best fit for advanced economies and large emerging markets. The paper identifies key complementary information to improve the presented nowcasting methodology to develop country trade estimates. The paper also considers an application to estimates of U.S. imports during a period of elevated trade tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Oliver Exton & Chang Gao & Mario Saraiva & Ms. Parisa Kamali & Alessandra Sozzi & Jasper Verschuur, 2026. "Nowcasting Country-Level Trade Estimates Using IMF PortWatch," IMF Working Papers 2026/099, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/099
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