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From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Jiao
  • Ting Lan
  • Yang Liu
  • Xinrui Zhao

Abstract

This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Jiao & Ting Lan & Yang Liu & Xinrui Zhao, 2026. "From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions," IMF Working Papers 2026/026, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/026
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