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Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Amundsen
  • Sophia Chen
  • Pierre Guérin
  • Sinem Kiliç Çelik
  • Masahiro Nishida

Abstract

Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor productivity. Linking these factors to firm-level data, we identify significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through the efficient reallocation of resources between firms and the removal of firm-level structural obstacles. Addressing issues such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensing and permits are associated with higher aggregate welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Amundsen & Sophia Chen & Pierre Guérin & Sinem Kiliç Çelik & Masahiro Nishida, 2025. "Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2025/157, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/157
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