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Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy

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  • Belinda Azenui
  • Sandile Hlatshwayo
  • Michael Spence

Abstract

The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within it, manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decade following the GFC after declining for several decades. Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for a large majority of employment and real value added. At the same time, the tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growth of nearly 3 percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradable sectors. This marked divergence raises concerns regarding inequality and the sustainability of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Belinda Azenui & Sandile Hlatshwayo & Michael Spence, 2025. "Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Change and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 2025/156, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/156
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