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Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan
  • Karras Lui
  • Ian J Nield
  • Eucharist Muaulu
  • Viiaonaoperesi Reupena
  • Ivy Sabuga
  • Aiulu Tolovaa

Abstract

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the estimation of the present and near-term forecast. It employs standard nowcasting methods such as Bridge, Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS), and Unrestricted MIDAS (U-MIDAS). All methods significantly outperform the naive forecasts. Our analysis show that forecast combination of the three methods minimizes the root mean squared error (RMSE) for both full and pre-COVID-19 samples, while U-MIDAS performs better during crises, particularly in identifying turning points during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening nowcasting capacity is important for Samoa, where real GDP data release experiences up to a 90-day lag.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan & Karras Lui & Ian J Nield & Eucharist Muaulu & Viiaonaoperesi Reupena & Ivy Sabuga & Aiulu Tolovaa, 2025. "Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa," IMF Working Papers 2025/092, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/092
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