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Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America

Author

Listed:
  • Juliette Caucheteux
  • Mr. Jonas Nauerz
  • Svetlana Vtyurina

Abstract

Extreme weather has profoundly affected countries across South America (SA), given the importance of the agricultural sector for the economies. However, these effects have not yet been properly measured. In our study, we construct a unique dataset of high-frequency satellite data on temperature, precipitation, and a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that proxies the agricultural yield in selected countries. In particular, we then examine the effect of droughts on agricultural yields (soy output) and find that they have a significant negative impact and that there is heterogeneity in the response across countries. While insurance could help protect farmers against severe losses, coverage in the region is low, and barriers remain high. Building on existing literature and using a calibrated structural model, we highlight the benefits of insurance for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and offer some recommendations for its expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliette Caucheteux & Mr. Jonas Nauerz & Svetlana Vtyurina, 2025. "Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America," IMF Working Papers 2025/052, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/052
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