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A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco G. Dakila Jr.
  • Dennis M. Bautista
  • Jasmin E. Dacio
  • Rosemarie A. Amodia
  • Sarah Jane A. Castañares
  • Paul Reimon R. Alhambra
  • Jan Christopher G. Ocampo
  • Charles John P. Marquez
  • Mark Rex S. Romaraog
  • Mr. Philippe D Karam
  • Daniel Baksa
  • Mr. Jan Vlcek

Abstract

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has enhanced its macroeconomic modeling through the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), transitioning from a multi-equation econometric model to a modernized system centered on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). In its new version, the Policy Analysis Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0) integrates forward-looking projections, endogenous monetary policy, fiscal and macroprudential considerations, labor dynamics, and addresses complex shocks and policy trade-offs, facilitating effective policy mix determination and supporting real-time policy evaluation. The BSP’s modernization efforts also include refining forecast calendars and strengthening communication channels to accommodate the operationalization of PAMPh2.0. Detailed validation methods ensure empirical consistency. Finally, future refinements will align the model with evolving empirical findings and theoretical insights, ensuring its continued relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco G. Dakila Jr. & Dennis M. Bautista & Jasmin E. Dacio & Rosemarie A. Amodia & Sarah Jane A. Castañares & Paul Reimon R. Alhambra & Jan Christopher G. Ocampo & Charles John P. Marquez & Mark R, 2024. "A Monetary and Financial Policy Analysis and Forecasting Model for the Philippines (PAMPh2.0)," IMF Working Papers 2024/148, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/148
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