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A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones

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  • Michele Fornino
  • Mahmut Kutlukaya
  • Caterina Lepore
  • Javier Uruñuela López

Abstract

The study provides forward-looking estimates for economic damages from floods and tropical cyclones (TC) for a wide range of countries using global datasets. Damages are estimated for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and aggregated at the country level, building them from geographically disaggregated estimates of hazard severity and economic exposures across 183 countries. The results show that, for most countries, floods and TC’s damage rates increase (i) during the estimation span of 2020 to 2100, and (ii) with more severe global warming scenarios. In line with other global studies, expected floods and TCs damages are unevenly distributed across the world. The estimates can be used for a wide range of applications, as damage rates represent the key variable connecting climate scenarios to economics and financial sector risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Fornino & Mahmut Kutlukaya & Caterina Lepore & Javier Uruñuela López, 2024. "A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones," IMF Working Papers 2024/141, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    2. Andrew Smith & Paul D. Bates & Oliver Wing & Christopher Sampson & Niall Quinn & Jeff Neal, 2019. "New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
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