IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2024-033.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold Evidence for the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Li Liu
  • Mr. Ben Lockwood
  • Eddy H.F. Tam

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the VAT threshold on firm growth in the UK, using exogenous variation over time in the threshold, combined with turnover bin fixed effects, for identification. We find robust evidence that annual growth in turnover slows by about 1 percentage point when firm turnover gets close to the threshold, with no evidence of higher growth when the threshold is passed. Growth in firm costs shows a similar pattern, indicating that the response to the threshold is likely to be a real response rather than an evasion response. Firms that habitually register even when their turnover is below the VAT threshold (voluntary registered firms) have growth that is unaffected by the threshold, whereas firms that select into the Flat-Rate Scheme have a less pronounced slowdown response than other firms. Similar patterns of turnover and cost growth around the threshold are also observed for non-incorporated businesses. Finally, simulation results clarify the relative contribution of ``crossers" (firms who eventually register for VAT) and ``non-crossers" (those who permanently stay below the threshold) in explaining our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Li Liu & Mr. Ben Lockwood & Eddy H.F. Tam, 2024. "Small Firm Growth and the VAT Threshold Evidence for the UK," IMF Working Papers 2024/033, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=544462
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Maloney, William F. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel V., 2011. "Does formality improve micro-firm performance? Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 262-276, March.
    2. Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas & Rauhanen, Timo, 2019. "Compliance costs vs. tax incentives: Why do entrepreneurs respond to size-based regulations?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 139-164.
    3. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    4. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Keen, Michael & Mintz, Jack, 2004. "The optimal threshold for a value-added tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 559-576, March.
    6. Nichter, Simeon & Goldmark, Lara, 2009. "Small Firm Growth in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1453-1464, September.
    7. Amrit Amirapu & Michael Gechter, 2020. "Labor Regulations and the Cost of Corruption: Evidence from the Indian Firm Size Distribution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 34-48, March.
    8. William G. Gale & Aaron Krupkin & Kim Rueben, 2015. "The Relationship Between Taxes and Growth at the State Level: New Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(4), pages 919-942, December.
    9. Robert Carroll & Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Mark Rider & Harvey S. Rosen, 2001. "Personal Income Taxes and the Growth of Small Firms," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 15, pages 121-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Wonma Wanichthaworn & Trongwut Burong, 2021. "VAT threshold and small business behavior: evidence from Thai tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1242-1275, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    2. Goupille-Lebret, Jonathan & Garbinti, Bertrand & Munoz, Mathilde & Stantcheva, Stefanie & Zucman, Gabriel, 2023. "Tax Design, Information, and Elasticities: Evidence From the French Wealth Tax," CEPR Discussion Papers 18206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Zhao, Zhiqi, 2022. "The optimal sales threshold separating taxpayers by size in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Philippe Aghion & Ufuk Akcigit & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2023. "Tax simplicity or simplicity of evasion? Evidence from self-employment taxes in France," POID Working Papers 050, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Asatryan, Zareh & Peichl, Andreas, 2016. "Responses of firms to tax, administrative and accounting rules: Evidence from Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Timo Rauhanen, 2016. "The Effects of Size-Based Regulation on Small Firms: Evidence from VAT Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6115, CESifo.
    7. Wenyan Sun & Kedong Yin & Zhe Liu, 2021. "Tax Incentives, R&D Manipulation, and Corporate Innovation Performance: Evidence from Listed Companies in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Harju, Jarkko & Matikka, Tuomas & Rauhanen, Timo, 2019. "Compliance costs vs. tax incentives: Why do entrepreneurs respond to size-based regulations?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 139-164.
    9. Arbex, Marcelo Aarestru & Mattos, Enlinson, 2020. "Limited tax capacity and the optimal taxation of firms," Textos para discussão 539, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    10. Li Liu & Benjamin Lockwood, 2015. "VAT Notches," CESifo Working Paper Series 5371, CESifo.
    11. Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Kosonen, 2012. "The Impact of Tax Incentives on the Economic Activity of Entrepreneurs," Working Papers 1220, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    12. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    13. Drahomir Klimsa & Robert Ullmann, 2023. "Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1002-1035, August.
    14. Floridi, A. & Wagner, N. & Cameron, J., 2016. "A study of Egyptian and Palestine trans-formal firms – A neglected category operating in the borderland between formality and informality," ISS Working Papers - General Series 619, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    15. HOSONO Kaoru & HOTEI Masaki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2017. "Tax Avoidance by Capital Reduction: Evidence from corporate tax reform in Japan," Discussion papers 17050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Daniel Hungerman, 2023. "Tax evasion, efficiency, and bunching in the presence of enforcement notches," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(1), pages 43-68, February.
    17. Ravi Kanbur & Michael Keen, 2014. "Thresholds, informality, and partitions of compliance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 536-559, August.
    18. Wian Boonzaaier & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Jukka Pirttilä, 2019. "How do small firms respond to tax schedule discontinuities? Evidence from South African tax registers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1104-1136, October.
    19. Clifford, Sarah & Mavrokonstantis, Panos, 2021. "Tax enforcement using a hybrid between self- and third-party reporting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    20. Asatryan, Zareh & Gomtsyan, David, 2020. "The incidence of VAT evasion," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAT; size-based threshold; firm growth; VAT Threshold; VAT threshold; turnover growth; scheme firm; firm turnover; Value-added tax; Threshold analysis; Compliance costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.