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Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Valerie Cerra
  • Ms. Mai Hakamada
  • Mr. Ruy Lama

Abstract

One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Mai Hakamada & Mr. Ruy Lama, 2021. "Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 2021/170, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/170
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingjin Luo & Shenqguan Wang, 2023. "Financialization and sluggish recovery of firms' investment: Global evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 344-363, December.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Andres Gonzalez & Mr. Alejandro D Guerson, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 2023/138, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Beqiraj, Elton & Cao, Qingqing & Minetti, Raoul & Tarquini, Giulio, 2023. "Persistent Slumps: Innovation and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2023-3, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    5. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Medium-term TFP loss; impulse response; investment dynamics; hysteresis effect; aftermath of a financial crises; Total factor productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Banking crises; Self-employment; Global;
    All these keywords.

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