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What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?

Author

Listed:
  • Jelle Barkema
  • Tryggvi Gudmundsson
  • Mr. Mico Mrkaic

Abstract

Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap estimates shows a firm negative skew, in line with previous regional studies, as well as frequent historical revisions to output gap estimates. Secondly, when looking at the co-movement of output gap estimates and realized measures of slack, a positive, but limited, association is found between the two. Thirdly, text analysis techniques are deployed to assess how estimates of output gaps are used in Fund surveillance. The results reveal no strong bearing of output gap estimates on the coverage of the concept or direction of policy advice. The results suggest the need for continued caution in relying on output gaps for real-time policymaking and policy assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelle Barkema & Tryggvi Gudmundsson & Mr. Mico Mrkaic, 2020. "What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?," IMF Working Papers 2020/259, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/259
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=49890
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Patricks Ogiji & Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2022. "Estimating asymmetries in monetary policy reaction function: an oil price augmented Taylor type rule for Nigeria under unconventional regime," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1655-1672, August.
    2. Željko Kuèiš & Irena Paliæ, 2021. "Empirical analysis of the elasticity of employment to output gap in the republic of croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 19(1), pages 94-105.
    3. Željko Kuèiš & Irena Paliæ, 2021. "Empirical analysis of the elasticity of employment to output gap in the republic of croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 19(1), pages 94-105.
    4. Diego Martínez López & Fernando González González, 2022. "Los objetivos de déficit en las Comunidades Autónomas: una propuesta basada en la deuda," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 241(2), pages 105-141, June.

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