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Political Business Cycles and Expenditure Policies in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Ludger Schuknecht

Abstract

The paper studies empirically fiscal policies around elections in 35 developing countries. It finds that governments try to improve their reelection prospects with the help of expansionary expenditure policies. Rising fiscal deficits before elections are followed by fiscal consolidation afterwards. These cycles can be found particularly in countries which are less trade-oriented or which pursue fixed exchange rate policies. Certain IMF-supported programs (SAF/ESAF and EFF arrangements) contribute to fiscal stabilization, but they do not appear to affect the incidence of fiscal cycles. The paper concludes that policy advice and macroeconomic projections should not overlook election constraints, and political feasibility of reforms should be strengthened particularly before elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludger Schuknecht, 1994. "Political Business Cycles and Expenditure Policies in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1994/121, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/121
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    2. Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Political Budget Cycles Or Voters As Fiscal Conservatives? Evidence From Colombia," Documentos CEDE 3343, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Marcela Eslava, 2006. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: Survey," Research Department Publications 4487, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, 2014. "Judges as Fiscal Activists: Can Constitutional Review Shape Public Finance?," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 2, pages 79-104, June.
    6. Alberto Vaquero-García & María Cadaval-Sampedro & Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2022. "Do Political Factors Affect Fiscal Consolidation? Evidence From Spanish Regional Governments," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    7. Asfaha, Samuel, 2007. "National Revenue Funds: Their Efficacy for Fiscal Stability and Intergenerational Equity," MPRA Paper 7656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2011. "Government Budget Deficits and the Development of the Bond Market in Pakistan: Issues and Challenges," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 159-198, September.

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