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Assessing The Impact Of Fiscal Shocks On Output In MENAP Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Martin D. Cerisola
  • Mr. Chadi Abdallah
  • Mr. Victor A Davies
  • Mr. Mark Fischer

Abstract

This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin D. Cerisola & Mr. Chadi Abdallah & Mr. Victor A Davies & Mr. Mark Fischer, 2015. "Assessing The Impact Of Fiscal Shocks On Output In MENAP Countries," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2015/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imftnm:2015/001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.
    2. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nouran Hussein & Jasmin Fouad, 2020. "When the Art of Macroeconomic Management Confronts the Evolution of Business Cycles: Zooming into the Egyptian Case," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 11-34, May.
    4. Yacoub Alatrash & Gani Nurmukhametov, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness Under Different Debt Regimes: The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 1527, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2021.
    5. Mr. Armand P Fouejieu & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez & Mr. Sohaib Shahid, 2018. "Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought," IMF Working Papers 2018/133, International Monetary Fund.

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