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U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee
  • Mr. Pau Rabanal
  • Mr. Damiano Sandri

Abstract

U.S. household consumption declined sharply in late 2008, marking a departure from the trend of a steady increase in U.S. consumption as a share of income since the 1980s. Combining econometric and simulation analysis, we estimate that this departure will be sustained beyond the crisis: the U.S. household consumption rate will likely decline somewhat further from its current level, as the saving rate rises to around 6 percent of disposable personal income (from nearly 5 percent in 2009). Compared to the pre-crisis years (2003–07), this saving rate implies a decline in U.S. private-sector demand on the order of 3 percentage points of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2010. "U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/001, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfspn:2010/001
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