IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/10-e-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Analysis of Equity Market Expectations in the Recent Financial Turmoil Using Implied Moments and Jump Diffusion Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshihiko Sugihara

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yoshihiko.sugihara@boj.or.jp))

  • Nobuyuki Oda

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: nobuyuki.oda@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This paper investigates market expectations of future equity prices using the probability distribution and the moments implied in equity option prices. We first conduct, without assuming a particular model, a nonparametric analysis of the development of market expectations in four major markets during the financial turmoil following the summer of 2007. We then conduct a parametric analysis to reconsider these expectations from the perspective of a stochastic process, assuming jump diffusion processes that configure the implied distribution. These analyses reveal that the possibility of discontinuous price jumps in each country increased downwards during the recent financial turmoil, while volatilities determining the dispersion of continuous price changes surged. Viewing the results from the perspective of a probability distribution, we find that kurtosis and the absolute value of skewness declined, while variance dramatically increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshihiko Sugihara & Nobuyuki Oda, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Market Expectations in the Recent Financial Turmoil Using Implied Moments and Jump Diffusion Processes," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/10-E-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2008. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices," NBER Working Papers 13854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    implied distribution; implied moment; jump diffusion process; nonparametric method; GMM; characteristic function GMM;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.