The Global Economic Effects of the Japanese Crisis
Economic performance in Japan--the world's second largest economy, the largest in Asia, and the world's largest creditor country--is going from bad to worse. Growth has essentially been flat since 1992, and the economy is now shrinking at an annualized rate of more than 3 percent. The OECD (1997) and Posen (1998) calculate that as a consequence of this prolonged period of subpar growth, Japan has accumulated a substantial "output gap" indicating that actual growth is well below potential. Given Japan's characteristics, one conservatively could expect national income to grow at approximately 2.5 percent--with a transitory period of faster growth to absorb accumulated slack.
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