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US wage patterns during and after the pandemic: Insights from a novel data source

Author

Listed:
  • Jeff Nezaj

    (ADP Research)

  • Nela Richardson

    (ADP Research)

  • Liv Wang

    (ADP Research)

Abstract

This paper adds to a growing body of evidence on the underlying determinants of pandemic and postpandemic wage patterns by leveraging private-sector payroll records from ADP Inc., a dataset that comprises more than 25 million employees, or about 1 in 6 workers in the United States. The paper finds that the pandemic's disruption of industry sectors and workers drove large swings in pay growth as lower-wage workers left the labor force in the spring of 2020 and were hired back a year later. It also triggered a shift to larger year-over-year pay gains that so far have endured, albeit with some moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Nezaj & Nela Richardson & Liv Wang, 2025. "US wage patterns during and after the pandemic: Insights from a novel data source," Working Paper Series WP25-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp25-5
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2025/us-wage-patterns-during-and-after-pandemic-insights-novel-data
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage Patterns; Labor Force; Employment; Labor Demand; Labor Supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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