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Potential Growth and Business Cycle in the Spanish Economy: Implications for Fiscal Policy


  • Rafael Domenech

    (Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister, Spain. University of Valencia, Spain)

  • Ángel Estrada

    (Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister, Spain)

  • Luis González-Calbet

    (Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister, Spain)


An accurately estimation of the cyclical position of an economy is a necessary condition for the success of fiscal stabilisation policies. In this paper we show that the estimation of the output gap by means of decomposing a production function produces similar results to univariate and multivariate methods, increasing their robustness and allowing us to conclude that most of the information on the economic cycle is included in the cyclical component of the unemployment rate. The results also indicate that there is reduced uncertainty about the periods when the Spanish economy has clearly been in a deep recession or in a sharp expansion. These periods have been limited and of relatively short duration. Fiscal policy should pay particular attention to these episodes, when discretionary stabilisation policies make most sense.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Domenech & Ángel Estrada & Luis González-Calbet, 2007. "Potential Growth and Business Cycle in the Spanish Economy: Implications for Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 0705, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:iei:wpaper:0705

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    File Function: First version, 2007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Richard A. Musgrave, 1961. "Approaches to a Fiscal Theory of Political Federalism," NBER Chapters,in: Public Finances: Needs, Sources, and Utilization, pages 97-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item


    potential growth; business cycle; speed-limit policies;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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