Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine: Eine Einschätzung der Integrationschancen

"Since the onset of the war in the Ukraine until March 22 some 3.6 million refugees have left the country. This corresponds to a daily outflow of 160,000 persons. The peak was achieved with an emigration of some 210,000 refugees ten days after the onset of the war, meanwhile the outflow has stabilized to 66,000 to 70,000 persons per day. The refugee migration is concentrated on the countries at the EU borders to the Ukraine and Moldavia, albeit exact figures on secondary migration to other EU Member States are missing. Germany has received according to official data some 232,000 refugees until March 22. However, the actual figures are likely to be considerably higher since only a part of the immigration is documented in the Schengen area. Evidence-based forecasts of the migration potential from Ukraine are not feasible at present, since the conditions for flight and migration in the Ukraine are historically unprecedented and the outcome of the war and the post-war situation is uncertain. Both a substantial further increase in the migration figures as well as substantial return migration in case of a ceasefire are possible. So far, the share of minor-aged children is estimated to stand at 50 percent of the refugee population, the adult population is overwhelmingly dominated by females. Education levels of the Ukrainian population are high, and school enrollment rates of females in tertiary education are considerably higher than those of males. Education levels of the Ukrainian diaspora in Germany are high as well with tertiary education shares of 50 percent. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian workforce is only partially able to transfer this human capital into the German labor market and substantial parts are employed below their education levels. A disproportionally high share of 30 percent of the employed workforce performs helper and assistance tasks. The activation of the mass-displacement directive of the EU has improved the conditions for providing shelter for refugees and of their integration into the labor market and societies relative to the Dublin-III-directive and the other rules of the Common European Asylum System. It facilitates a more efficient distribution of refugees from Ukraine across the EU Member States, mitigates pressures on the border countries of the EU and reduces the risk of a collapse of the European asylum system. It furthermore facilitates integration since granting a temporary residence permit increases legal security and avoids integration hurdles created by lengthy and uncertain asylum procedures. The one-year residence permit should be prolonged to three years if the situation in the Ukraine does not allow fast return migration in order to create longer planning horizons and further legal security, which will in turn further foster the integration of refugees from the Ukraine. In the past, the dispersal of refugees according to the “Königsteiner Schlüssel” across the Federal States and the administrative dispersal of refugees across municipalities by the Federal States has resulted in a disproportional allocation of the refugee population in regions with poor economic prospects and above-average unemployment rates. This has also hampered the utilization of networks which might facilitate labor market integration and impaired the allocative efficiency of the labor market by increasing information- and search costs. Thus, dispersal policies should also consider preferences of the refugee population and integration criteria, particularly criteria which are relevant for labor market integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))