The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change

"On December 8, 2024, the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, abruptly changed Syria’s political landscape and reshaped the return prospects for millions of Syrians living abroad. We exploit this unanticipated regime change as a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of homeland developments on refugees’ settlement and return intentions. Drawing on novel survey data from Germany, launched just days before Assad’s fall, we find that the regime collapse significantly affected the expressed settlement intentions of Syrians in Germany. Respondents interviewed afterward were more likely to express temporary settlement intentions, more likely to report emigration considerations, and more likely to express uncertainty about their future in Germany. However, we find no effect on concrete short-term emigration plans, suggesting that increased return aspirations reflect forward-looking intentions rather than immediate behavioral change. Further analyses shows that legal security in Germany and weaker social or emotional integration correlate with a stronger preference for temporary stay." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))