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Tromjesečni projekcijski model za Hrvatsku

Author

Listed:
  • Nikola Bokan

    (Croatian National Bank, Croatia)

  • Rafael Ravnik

Abstract

Ovim se radom dokumentira tromjesečni projekcijski model koji se primjenjuje u redovitim prognozama Hrvatske narodne banke. Predloženi je model reducirani prikaz novoga kejnezijanskog modela opće ravnoteže za otvorena gospodarstva proširen određenim ad hoc obilježjima u svrhu prikupljanja empirijskih dokaza o hrvatskom gospodarstvu. Posebna se pozornost pridaje obilježjima modela koji se odnose na otvoreno gospodarstvo, pitanjima financijske stabilnosti povezanima s visokim stupnjem euroiziranosti kredita i modeliranju monetarne politike. Glavni je doprinos postojećoj literaturi pravilo monetarne politike prikazano reakcijskom funkcijom tečaja s puzećim kretanjem ciljanog tečaja. Simulacija i prognoze provedene u radu pokazuju da se modelom mogu dobiti precizne prognoze glavnih makroekonomskih varijabla i objasniti važni odnosi i transmisijski mehanizmi u hrvatskom gospodarstvu.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Bokan & Rafael Ravnik, 2019. "Tromjesečni projekcijski model za Hrvatsku," Pregledi 43, Hrvatska narodna banka, Hrvatska.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:pregle:43
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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