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科学技術イノベーション政策のマクロ経済政策体系への導入に関する調査研究

Author

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  • 赤池, 伸一
  • 萱園, 理
  • 藤田, 健一
  • 外木, 暁幸
  • 花田, 真一

Abstract

科学技術イノベーション政策の経済的・社会的影響を測定するには、政策の変化、科学技術イノベーションシステムの変化、経済パフォーマンスの変化及び国民生活への影響を体系的に接続することが必要である。一方、従来の我が国あるいは海外における既存の代表的な政府マクロ経済モデルでは、技術進歩率が外生的に与えられるなど科学技術イノベーションを明示的に扱っているものは少ないのが実情である。第1に、科学技術イノベーション政策を代表的な経済モデルに接続するため、政策の構造化を図り、測定可能な指標群を構成した「科学技術イノベーション・モジュール」の開発を行うことによって、標準的な政策とマクロ経済モデルの接続を試行した。このためマクロ計量モデル(MaeSTIP; Macroeconomic Model for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy)を開発し、シミュレーションを試行した。第2に、科学技術イノベーション政策、研究開発及び生産性の関係に関するエビデンスを充実することの必要性が複数の有識者から指摘されている。科学技術イノベーション政策の研究開発への影響、無形資産の一つとしての研究開発の生産性への効果は、不確実性があり、その因果関係も明らかではない。既存の調査研究を整理するとともに、現在までに収集可能なデータを用いて現実的に論証可能な範囲を明らかにする必要がある。このため、国際パネルデータ及び企業パネルデータを用いて検証を行った。国際パネルデータによる分析は先進13 ヵ国の1981 年から2010 年についてR&D やMFP(Multi-Factor Productivity)のデータを収集し、実証分析を行った。企業R&D に最も強く影響を与えているのはGDP であり、政府資金も促進要因となっている可能性が示唆された。MFP には国内企業の知識ストックが影響しているほか、海外の知識ストックのスピルオーバーも観測された。企業パネルデータによる分析は科学技術研究調査及び企業活動基本調査の企業単位の個票データを用いた。実証分析の結果、企業のTFP(Total Factor Productivity)と研究開発集約度(研究開発支出の対付加価値比)の間には有意に正の関係があり、製造業ではよりその傾向が強まるが非製造業では両者の関係は希薄になることが明らかとなった。また、TFP と研究開発集約度との関係にはタイムラグがあることも明らかになった。併せて、知識ストックの概念、測定方法等に関する課題を整理した。本調査研究の結果は、マクロ経済政策においては、SNA(国民経済計算)におけるR&D 資本化の具体化や、大規模経済モデルへのR&D や科学技術イノベーション政策の導入のための課題の抽出に資することが期待される。また、科学技術イノベーション政策においては、現科学技術基本計画のフォローアップや次期基本計画の検討のための基礎的な情報として、他の調査研究と相まって科学技術イノベーション政策の経済効果の測定に関する俯瞰的な知見を与えることが期待される。

Suggested Citation

  • 赤池, 伸一 & 萱園, 理 & 藤田, 健一 & 外木, 暁幸 & 花田, 真一, 2013. "科学技術イノベーション政策のマクロ経済政策体系への導入に関する調査研究," IIR Working Paper 13-19, Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:iirwps:13-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    イノベーション; R&D; TFP; マクロ計量モデル; パネルデータ分析;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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