Conditional Leptokurtosis in Energy Prices: Multivariate Evidence from Futures Markets
We study the joint movements of the returns on futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas at a daily frequency. We model the leptokurtic behavior through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena (2004). Futures prices of crude and heating oil co-vary strongly. The correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and crude oil has been rising over the last 5 years. However, this correlation has been low on average over two thirds of the sample, indicating that futures markets have no established tradition of pricing natural gas as a function of developments on oil markets.
|Date of creation:||27 Jun 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: +46 8 16 20 00
Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2007_0011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sten Nyberg)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.