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IEA sine energiutsikter: Bibel eller blendverk?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohn, Klaus

    (UiS)

Abstract

Gjennom dei seinare åra har Det internasjonale energibyrået (IEA) teke ei stadig meir sentral rolle som premissleverandør for utsikter og politikk på energi og klimaområdet, både internasjonalt og i Noreg. Denne analysen gir ein introduksjon til metodar, modellering og scenariodesign bak energiutsiktene frå IEA. Deretter følgjer ei drøfting av føresetnader og framskrivingar for økonomisk vekst, teknologiske framsteg og fornybar investeringar. Analysen tyder på at viktige sider ved framskrivingane er knytt til kritiske eksogene føresetnadar. Trass i store ressursar og høg kompetanse, er usikkerheita rundt IEA sine analyser neppe mindre enn i andre framskrivingar av det globale energibiletet. Ein porsjon sunn skepsis er difor på sin plass i møtet med alle utsikter for energi og klima.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohn, Klaus, 2016. "IEA sine energiutsikter: Bibel eller blendverk?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/1, University of Stavanger.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2016_001
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    Cited by:

    1. Lindholt, Lars & Glomsrød, Solveig, 2018. "Phasing out coal and phasing in renewables – Good or bad news for arctic gas producers?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energiøkonomi; makroøkonomi; modellering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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