IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0133.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluation of exchange rate forecasts for the krona’s nominal effective exchange rate

Author

Listed:
  • Degrér, Henrik

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Hansen, Jan

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Sellin, Peter

    () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the out of sample forecasting performance of a large number of models belonging to a popular class of exchange rate models. Forecasts of the Swedish nominal effective exchange rate for the period 1980-2000 are performed using both single equation estimation and VAR approaches. The forecast horizons used were from 1 to 12 quarters. None of the models evaluated could convincingly outperform a random walk alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Degrér, Henrik & Hansen, Jan & Sellin, Peter, 2001. "Evaluation of exchange rate forecasts for the krona’s nominal effective exchange rate," Working Paper Series 133, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_foa/wp_133.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; monetary approach; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.