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Simulating the Future Pension Wealth and Retirement Saving in Sweden


  • Röstberg, Anna

    () (Uppsala University)

  • Andersson, Björn

    () (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Lindh, Thomas

    () (Institute for Futures Studies)


In this paper the wealth consequences of the Swedish pension system in the transition from a defined benefit to notional defined contribution system are simulated with almost exact institutional detail, using life cycle profiles estimated from detailed longitudinal micro data. Projected wealth, including different types of pension wealth, are computed and compared between cohorts, gender, wealth deciles and occupational categories. Consistent saving rates and replacement rates allowing consumption to stay constant after retirement are computed. Two different macroeconomic scenarios are considered, one using stylised values for growth, inflation etc. and another using demographically based forecasts. Some conclusions are that the cohorts born in the 1940s are relatively favoured, and so are the wealthiest deciles. Stylised macro assumptions yield more optimistic wealth projections than those corresponding to demographically based projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Röstberg, Anna & Andersson, Björn & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Simulating the Future Pension Wealth and Retirement Saving in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2005:6, Institute for Futures Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2005_006 Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-64-8

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Future Pension Wealth; Retirement Saving in Sweden;

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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