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Power and Bias of Likelihood Based Inference in the Cointegration Model under Fractional Cointegration

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Michael K.

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Gredenhoff, Mikael P.

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper investigates how fractional cointegration affects the common maximum likelihood cointegration procedure. It is shown that the likelihood ratio test of no cointegration has considerable power against fractional alternatives. In contrast to the case of a cointegrated system, the usual maximum likelihood estimator gives severely biased estimates of the long-run relation under fractional cointegration. This suggests that the standard likelihood approach should be used with caution and that a test to separate fractionally cointegrated series from series that are cointegrated of an integer order should be executed prior to estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Michael K. & Gredenhoff, Mikael P., 1998. "Power and Bias of Likelihood Based Inference in the Cointegration Model under Fractional Cointegration," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 221, Stockholm School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0221
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    2. Horowitz, J.L., 1995. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Working Papers 95-10, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    3. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics: Theory and Numerical Performance," Econometrics 9602009, EconWPA, revised 05 Mar 1996.
    4. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    5. J. L. Horowitz, 1995. "Bootstrap Methods In Econometrics: Theory And Numerical Performance," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyhagen, Johan, 1998. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the multivariate fractional cointegrating model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 233, Stockholm School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Error correction; likelihood ratio test; maximum likelihood; fractional integration;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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