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Risiko For Kollaps På Aktiemarkedet- Eller Hvad?

Author

Listed:
  • Olesen, Jan Overgaard

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Risager, Ole

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996, idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i stand via styrtdykkende aktie kurser. Forecastet bygger på den præmis, at D-P forholdet vil vende tilbage til det historiske gennemsnit, men det behøver ingenlunde at være tilfældet grundet fundamentalt ændrede skatteregler. Vi præsenterer alternative forecasts baseret ikke kun på D-P ratioen, men også på en række andre nøgletal, jf. Olesen & Risager (1998). Disse forecasts er ikke følsomme overfor præmisser vedrørende D-P forholdets tilbagevenden til det historiske gennemsnit.

Suggested Citation

  • Olesen, Jan Overgaard & Risager, Ole, 1999. "Risiko For Kollaps På Aktiemarkedet- Eller Hvad?," Working Papers 02-1999, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:1999_002
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    File URL: http://openarchive.cbs.dk/cbsweb/handle/10398/7546
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    Keywords

    Stock market; Denmark; D-P ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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