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Risiko For Kollaps På Aktiemarkedet- Eller Hvad?

  • Olesen, Jan Overgaard

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

  • Risager, Ole

    (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)

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    Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996, idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i stand via styrtdykkende aktie kurser. Forecastet bygger på den præmis, at D-P forholdet vil vende tilbage til det historiske gennemsnit, men det behøver ingenlunde at være tilfældet grundet fundamentalt ændrede skatteregler. Vi præsenterer alternative forecasts baseret ikke kun på D-P ratioen, men også på en række andre nøgletal, jf. Olesen & Risager (1998). Disse forecasts er ikke følsomme overfor præmisser vedrørende D-P forholdets tilbagevenden til det historiske gennemsnit.

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    File URL: http://openarchive.cbs.dk/cbsweb/handle/10398/7546
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    Paper provided by Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-1999.

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    Length: 10 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:1999_002
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
    Phone: 38 15 25 75
    Fax: 38 15 34 99
    Web page: http://www.cbs.dk/departments/econ/
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