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The Green Transition and Households' Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment

Author

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  • Barro, Tjantana
  • Marencak, Michal
  • Nghiem, Giang

Abstract

We provide causal evidence that the economic framing of a structural policy changes households' macroeconomic expectations. In a randomized survey experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel of Households, all participants first read an identical neutral primer about climate policy measures and are then randomly assigned to receive no further text or an additional narrative interpreting the policy primarily as a negative demand or supply shock. Both narratives reduce expected growth. However, only the supply-shock framing raises inflation expectations, while the demand-shock framing does not reduce them-contrary to a simple demand-channel benchmark. These findings suggest that communication that makes different macro channels salient can materially shape expectations, with implications for economic policy communication during structural transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Barro, Tjantana & Marencak, Michal & Nghiem, Giang, 2026. "The Green Transition and Households' Macroeconomic Expectations: A Survey Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-743, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-743
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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