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Facteur 4 et mobilité des personnes et des marchandises

Listed author(s):
  • Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz


    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

In order to limit the impacts of climate change on the planet, the IPCC advocates the reduction of green house gas emissions by half. This objective imposes a 75% (factor 4) reduction on developed countries, like France. Can the transport sector meet this objective?Using the TILT model (Transport Issues in the Long-Term) -which takes into account the macroeconomic links existing between economic growth, technology, mobility and emissions- this paper looks into the necessary conditions in order to attain a factor 4. If technological progresses announced by engineers are met, we can get to a factor 2 (50% reduction), the rest of the reductions will have to be attained by changes in behavior and practices. Three scenario families are proposed in order to better illustrate the adjustments.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00277806.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00277806
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