Protectionism does not protect: On trade policy and food security in the MENA region

This paper examines the impact of restrictive trade policies on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Combining household-level data from the combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey with food tariff data for Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia, we investigate how trade policy restrictions affect food availability, affordability, and utilization. We also assess whether these effects differ across three vulnerable groups: women, low-skilled workers, and informal workers. Our findings indicate that food tariffs are associated with an increased likelihood of food insecurity, primarily through reduced food availability. The product-specific tariff analysis reveals considerable heterogeneity across food categories, suggesting that the transmission of tariffs to domestic markets varies by product. The interaction between tariffs and individual characteristics suggests that restrictive trade policies may undermine rather than strengthen food security during periods of crisis, especially among vulnerable groups. The adverse effects of trade restrictions are found to be concentrated among low-skilled and informal workers, who are more likely to experience food insecurity through reduced affordability and food utilization. Although women are generally more vulnerable to food insecurity, they are not found to be disproportionately affected by trade policy restrictions.