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Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Bergeaud

    (HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales)

  • Ruveyda Gozen

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • John Michael van Reenen

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - "technological trajectories" and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country's sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country's initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Bergeaud & Ruveyda Gozen & John Michael van Reenen, 2026. "Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data," Working Papers hal-05730043, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05730043
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6167252
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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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