IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-00546287.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trend shocks and business cycles in Sub Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Francis Naoussi

    () (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)

  • Fabien Tripier

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)

Abstract

This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]. We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior of output and consumption across countries, especially the excess volatility of consumption in SSA countries. Our results suggest a strong relationship between the weight of trend shocks in the source of fluctuations and economic development. The weight of trend shocks is (i) higher in SSA countries than in emerging and developed countries; (ii) negatively correlated with the level of income, the quality of institutions, and the size of the credit market; and (iii) uncorrelated with the aid received by countries, the ratio of trade-openness, the inflation rate, and government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Francis Naoussi & Fabien Tripier, 2010. "Trend shocks and business cycles in Sub Saharan Africa," Working Papers hal-00546287, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00546287
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00546287
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00546287/document
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Permanent shocks; Growth; Africa; Small open economy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00546287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.