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France : croissance précaire

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Christophe Blot

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The French economy has recently shown some signs of recovery after four consecutive quarters of decrease in growth. GDP ceased to decline in the second quarter of 2009 (0.3%) and positive growth would be confirmed in the second half of the year as world trade recently resumed, financial conditions have eased and economic sentiment indicators have strengthened. But growth would remain precarious in 2010. Internal demand would still be constrained by the continuous rise in unemployment and by the outstandingly low level of capacity utilization. The rebound of the car sales in Europe, which have boosted French exports, would come to an end since "scrapping bonus" adopted in several EU countries will progressively run out. With annual growth reaching 0.8% in 2010, output gap will widen and public finances will still deteriorate.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane, 2009. "France : croissance précaire," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460038, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03460038
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.111.0173
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03460038
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    Cited by:

    1. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61qna0rp is not listed on IDEAS

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