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Subjective Return Expectations, Perceptions, and Portfolio Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Hector Calvo-Pardo

    (University of Southampton)

  • Xisco Oliver

    (UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands)

  • Luc Arrondel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Exploiting a representative sample of the French population by age, wealth, and asset classes, we document novel facts about their expectations and perceptions of stock market returns. Both expectations and perceptions of returns are very dispersed, significantly lower than their data counterparts, and a substantial portion of the variation in the former is explained by dispersion in the latter. Consistent with portfolio choice models under incomplete information, a conditional risk-return trade-off explains the intensive margin, while at the extensive margin, only expected returns matter. Despite accounting for survey measurement error in subjective return expectations, 'muted sensitivities' at both portfolio choice margins obtain, getting consistently (i) bigger when excluding informed non-participants, and (ii) smaller, for inertial and professionally delegated portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hector Calvo-Pardo & Xisco Oliver & Luc Arrondel, 2022. "Subjective Return Expectations, Perceptions, and Portfolio Choice," Post-Print halshs-03672154, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03672154
    DOI: 10.3390/jrfm15010006
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamila Duraj & Daniela Grunow & Michael Haliassos & Christine Laudenbach & Stephan Siegel, 2025. "Rethinking the Stock Market Participation Puzzle: A Qualitative Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 11980, CESifo.
    2. Duraj, Kamila & Grunow, Daniela & Chaliasos, Michael & Laudenbach, Christine & Siegel, Stephan, 2024. "Rethinking the stock market participation puzzle: A qualitative approach," IMFS Working Paper Series 210, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Sonsino, Doron & Roth, Yefim, 2025. "The decrease in confidence with forecast extremity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 877-893.
    4. Duraj, Kamila & Grunow, Daniela & Chaliasos, Michael & Laudenbach, Christine & Siegel, Stephan, 2024. "Rethinking the stock market participation puzzle: A qualitative approach," SAFE Working Paper Series 441, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Timothy K. Chue, 2025. "External Habit Persistence and Individual Portfolio Choice," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-10, October.

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