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The influence of waiting times on cost-effectiveness: a case study of colorectal cancer mass screening

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  • Pauline Chauvin

    (Epidémiologie, Systèmes d'Information, Modélisation - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [AP-HP] - AP-HP - Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) - SU - Sorbonne Université)

  • Jean-Michel Josselin

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Denis Heresbach

    (Centre Hospitalier de Cannes - Centre Hospitalier de Cannes - Centre Hospitalier de Cannes)

Abstract

When a cost-effectiveness analysis is implemented, the health-care system is usually assumed to adjust smoothly to the proposed new strategy. However, technological innovations in health care may often induce friction in the organization of care supply, implying the congestion of services and subsequent waiting times. Our objective here is to measure how these short run rigidities can challenge cost-effectiveness recommendations favorable to an innovative mass screening test for colorectal cancer. Using Markov modeling, we compare the standard Guaiac fecal occult blood test (gFOBT) with an innovative screening test for colorectal cancer, namely the immunological fecal occult blood test (iFOBT). Waiting time can occur between a positive screening test and the subsequent confirmation colonoscopy. Five scenarios are considered for iFOBT: no further waiting time compared with gFOBT, twice as much waiting time for a period of 5 or 10 years, and twice as much waiting time for a period of 5 or 10 years combined with a 25 % decrease in participation to confirmation colonoscopies. According to our modeling, compared with gFOBT, iFOBT would approximately double colonoscopy demand. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis enables concluding that the waiting time significantly increases the uncertainty surrounding recommendations favorable to iFOBT if it induces a decrease in the adherence rate for confirmation colonoscopy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Chauvin & Jean-Michel Josselin & Denis Heresbach, 2014. "The influence of waiting times on cost-effectiveness: a case study of colorectal cancer mass screening," Post-Print halshs-00875606, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00875606
    DOI: 10.1007/s10198-013-0525-9
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    1. Pauline Chauvin & Jean-Michel Josselin & Denis Heresbach, 2012. "Incremental net benefit and acceptability of alternative health policies: a case study of mass screening for colorectal cancer," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(3), pages 237-250, June.
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    1. Aida Ribera & John Slof & Ignacio Ferreira-González & Vicente Serra & Bruno García-del Blanco & Purificació Cascant & Rut Andrea & Carlos Falces & Enrique Gutiérrez & Raquel del Valle-Fernández & Césa, 2018. "The impact of waiting for intervention on costs and effectiveness: the case of transcatheter aortic valve replacement," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(7), pages 945-956, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health-care organization; cost-effectiveness analysis; waiting time; colorectal cancer screening; Markov model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

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