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Comparison and empirical validaton of optimizing and agent-based models of the Italian electricity market

Author

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  • Eric Guerci

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)

  • Alessandro Sapio

    (DISAE - Universita degli studi di Napoli "Parthenope" [Napoli])

Abstract

In recent years, several oligopolistic models of the liberalized power exchanges have been proposed, within two paradigms based upon radically different assumptions on rationality, learning and cognition: optimal choice and agent-based computational modeling. This paper is a first attempt to compare the explanatory performances of an agent-based model with a supply function equilibrium model on the same dataset. The models are designed in such a way that differences in performance between them are mainly due to their different behavioral assumptions, and are validated on a unique plant-level dataset on the Italian power exchange. As suggested by our findings, the agent-based model is better able to capture the intraday profile of power prices, but both models tend to overestimate the degree of competition among generating companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Guerci & Alessandro Sapio, 2011. "Comparison and empirical validaton of optimizing and agent-based models of the Italian electricity market," Post-Print halshs-00871126, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00871126
    DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2011.5953128
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00871126
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    Cited by:

    1. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    2. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    3. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.
    4. Miguel Pérez de Arce and Enzo Sauma, 2016. "Comparison of Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy in an Oligopolistic Market with Price-Responsive Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

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