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Comparison and empirical validaton of optimizing and agent-based models of the Italian electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Guerci

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alessandro Sapio

    (DISAE - PARTHENOPE - Università degli Studi di Napoli “Parthenope” = University of Naples)

Abstract

In recent years, several oligopolistic models of the liberalized power exchanges have been proposed, within two paradigms based upon radically different assumptions on rationality, learning and cognition: optimal choice and agent-based computational modeling. This paper is a first attempt to compare the explanatory performances of an agent-based model with a supply function equilibrium model on the same dataset. The models are designed in such a way that differences in performance between them are mainly due to their different behavioral assumptions, and are validated on a unique plant-level dataset on the Italian power exchange. As suggested by our findings, the agent-based model is better able to capture the intraday profile of power prices, but both models tend to overestimate the degree of competition among generating companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Guerci & Alessandro Sapio, 2011. "Comparison and empirical validaton of optimizing and agent-based models of the Italian electricity market," Post-Print halshs-00871126, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00871126
    DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2011.5953128
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    Cited by:

    1. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564igg8g is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Post-Print hal-03461120, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564igg8g is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564igg8g is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Miguel Pérez de Arce and Enzo Sauma, 2016. "Comparison of Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy in an Oligopolistic Market with Price-Responsive Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

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