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Évaluations ex ante et ex post d'un programme d'allocations scolaires conditionnées au Mexique

Author

Listed:
  • Jérémie Gignoux

    (LEA - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

Abstract

Cet article examine la qualité des évaluations ex-ante des effets des programmes d'allocations scolaires sur les activités des enfants dans les pays en développement. Nous utilisons les données d'une expérience sociale d'évaluation du programme mexicain Progresa. Nous comparons les prévisions données par un modèle ex-ante de forme réduite des effets de transferts de revenus sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants aux impacts estimés ex-post par l'expérience sociale. L'estimation ex-ante des effets du revenu parental repose sur son instrumentation par les biens durables et les caractéristiques des logements des bénéficiaires. Nos résultats montrent que les prévisions ex-ante des impacts du programme sont proches des impacts estimés ex-post. Nous discutons les biais de ces deux méthodes d'évaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérémie Gignoux, 2006. "Évaluations ex ante et ex post d'un programme d'allocations scolaires conditionnées au Mexique," Post-Print halshs-00825306, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00825306
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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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